Negotiating document from US on post-Kyoto agreement expected in Poznań

Oslo (27 November 2008)

From 1 to 12 December, delegates from more than 160 countries will meet at key UN climate change negotiations in Poznań, Poland. All eyes will be on the US representatives and a negotiating document from the US on its post-Kyoto intentions is expected, giving some indication of the new Administration’s climate change objectives, according to Point Carbon, the leading provider of market intelligence, news, analysis, forecasting and advisory services for the energy and environmental markets.

Although the economic recession casts gloom over the negotiations, the fact that President-elect Obama has confirmed his intention to engage constructively in the international negotiations is a positive signal for an agreed outcome in Copenhagen in 2009. However, as the Bush administration’s delegate will still represent the US in Poznań, no clear move from the US can be made at this meeting. Nonetheless, Point Carbon expects that a draft negotiation document from the US will be put on the table at the Poznań meeting, laying the ground for negotiations in 2009.

According to Andreas Arvanitakis, senior analyst at Point Carbon, “Obama will be present in Poznań with a shadow delegation. Everyone knows he has the ability to unlock the deadlock in the talks”.

Kristian Tangen, a Senior Partner at Point Carbon, said that “the position of the US and particularly where they stand when it comes negotiating binding emission obligations, is crucial for the negotiation dynamics and will determine whether we will get an ambitious agreement in Copenhagen. Poznan is not likely to provide much clarity in this regard, but at least we will get a somewhat clearer view where other countries stand”

The main line of conflict in the negotiations so far, between the Umbrella Group (US, Japan, Canada and Australia) and the developing countries (G77 and China) on binding emissions targets, will dominate the Poznań meeting, as will the reform of the flexible Kyoto mechanisms (the Clean Development Mechanism and Joint Implementation) and the ranges of emission reduction targets for developed countries.

“We expect that the long list of possible changes to the CDM will be narrowed down to a short list, and sectoral crediting, whereby a sector is credited for performance rather than an individual project, could feature on the list”, said Andreas Arvanitakis. He added “were this to transpire then it could mean a ramping up of the CDM”.

Other key items on the extensive agenda of the Poznań meeting include financial support and technology transfer, changes in the flexible Kyoto mechanisms and specific ranges of emission reduction objectives for Annex I countries (see Notes to editors), as well as the work programme for 2009. The Parties that meet in Poznań will also undertake the second review of the Kyoto Protocol under its Article 9, according to which the Protocol must be updated periodically to take into account the best available scientific information on climate change. Among the potential elements to be reviewed are the scope and effectiveness of the flexible mechanisms,
including helping more developing countries to benefit from the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM).

There are several streams of negotiations. The talks will take place under the UN Convention’s subsidiary bodies, under the Ad Hoc Working Group on Further Commitments for Annex I Parties under the Kyoto Protocol (AWG-KP), and under the Ad Hoc Working Group on Long-term Cooperative Action (AWG-LCA). The joint high-level segment of the COP and CMP will take place on 11 and 12 December, during which the delegates will conclude and possibly adopt important decisions. Point Carbon will be available to comment on these.
Poznań represents the last high-level meeting scheduled before the Copenhagen deadline in December 2009, where the Kyoto successor treaty will be negotiated, described by Yvo de Boer, Executive Secretary of the UNFCCC as “the most complicated set of negotiations probably ever seen”. One year after Bali, some hope that Poznań will mark a shift from discussion to negotiation, although firm agreement on any post-Kyoto deal is extremely unlikely at this stage.

Senior Partner Kristian Tangen and Senior Analyst Andreas Arvanitakis from Point Carbon will be available for interviews during the conference. Point Carbon will have a stand at Poznań which journalists are welcome to visit, from December 4 – 9. 

Notes to editors

The international political response to climate change began with the adoption of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in 1992. The UNFCCC entered into force on 21 March 1994, and now has 192 parties. 

In December 1997, delegates at COP 3 in Kyoto, Japan, agreed to a Protocol to the UNFCCC that commits developed countries to a market-based system to achieve emission reduction targets. These countries agreed to reduce their overall emissions of six greenhouse gases (GHGs) by 5.2 percent below 1990 levels between 2008 and 2012 (the first commitment period), with specific targets varying from country to country. 

Following COP 3, parties began negotiating many of the rules and operational details. The process was finalised in November 2001 at COP 7 in Marrakesh, Morocco, when delegates reached agreement on the Marrakesh Accords. The Kyoto Protocol entered into force on 16 February 2005, and now has 182 parties. 

The first Conference of the Parties serving as the Meeting of the Parties to the Kyoto Protocol (CMP 1) took place in Montreal, Canada. Delegates in Montreal also engaged in negotiations on long-term international cooperation on climate change, including possible processes to consider the post-2012 period. 

COP 13 and CMP 3 took place from 3-15 December 2007, in Bali, Indonesia. The focus of the Bali conference was on post-2012 issues, and negotiators spent much of their time seeking agreement on a two-year process, or “Bali roadmap,” to finalise a post-2012 regime by COP 15 in December 2009, to be held in Copenhagen. Under the Convention, the Bali Action Plan established the Ad-Hoc Working Group on Long-term cooperative action under the Convention (AWG-LCA), with a view to launching a comprehensive process on long-term cooperative action, to be completed in 2009. This is the forum that includes the US as an active participant. 

Under the Kyoto Protocol, the AWG-KP agreed in Bali on a plan for its activities and meetings for 2008-2009. In addition, CMP 3 considered preparations for a second review of the Protocol under Article 9, which will take place at CMP 4 in December 2008, in Poznań, Poland. Delegates identified a number of issues to be addressed during this review, including the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM), IPCC AR4, adaptation to a changing climate, effectiveness of the Protocol, its implementation and compliance with the targets. 

Annex I Countries: This group includes the industrialised OECD countries and countries with economies in transition listed in Annex I of the UNFCCC. Most of the Annex I countries took on binding emissions targets under Annex B of the Kyoto Protocol. Belarus and Turkey are listed in Annex I but not in Annex B; and Croatia, Liechtenstein, Monaco and Slovenia are listed in Annex B but not in Annex I.

For comments, further information or to arrange interviews, please contact:

Candida Jones
PR Manager, Point Carbon
Mob: +44 (0) 777 5754 763
E-mail: cjo@pointcarbon.com  

Andreas Arvanitakis
Senior Analyst
Mob: +44 7932 606 287
E-mail: aa@pointcarbon.com  

Kristian Tangen
Senior Partner
Mob: +47 92469400
E-mail: kt@pointcarbon.com  

For US press enquiries, please contact:

Jenna Agins
Intermarket Communications
Tel: +1 212 754 5613
E-mail: jagins@intermarket.com

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