CO2 trading at €30/t in 2013, €40/t in 2016, predicts Point Carbon

Oslo (03 June 2009)

Phase 3 of the European Union’s Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS) could see the price of an EU Allowance (EUA) rise from €30/t in 2013 to €40/t in 2016, according to Point Carbon, the leading provider of market intelligence, news, analysis, forecasting and advisory services for the energy and environmental markets. Such an increase, from current levels of around €15/t, is vital in order to meet the EU’s current emission reduction targets of 20% below 1990 levels and any possible increased reduction targets that may be discussed at the UN’s Copenhagen summit this December, Point Carbon believes.

These predictions, which appear in Point Carbon’s most recent Carbon Market Brief, entitled EU ETS scenarios to 2020, depend on political developments and alter depending on several emissions scenarios. Point Carbon highlights the three likely scenarios as being the EU-20 scenario, whereby the EU does not increase its current emissions reduction target, the EU-30 scenario, whereby the EU’s current reduction target in increased to 30% below 1990 levels and the ETS linking scenario, whereby the EU ETS establishes a full link to a US ETS and other ETSs before 2018. The EU-20 scenario would lead to a price range of €25/t-€50/t by 2016, the EU-30 scenario would lead to price range of €35/t-€65/t by 2016 and the final scenario would lead to a price range of €10/t-€30/t by 2016, significantly lower than the other two scenarios due to new and expanded crediting mechanisms and a large import limit.

According to KarlMagnus Maribu, author of the report and Senior Analyst at Point Carbon, “Over the last half year emissions projections have been dramatically reduced following the economic downturn resulting in lower emissions and a surplus of EUAs and Certified Emission Reductions (CERs) in phase 2 that can be banked into phase 3. At the same time, the US has become an active and constructive participant in the international climate negotiations and a climate agreement seems within reach. Therefore it is now more likely that the EU will adopt a 30% reduction target. Furthermore, cap – and - trade schemes in the US and in other regions have become more likely, potentially linking up with the EU ETS”.


Note to editors

• The Kyoto Protocol on Climate Change, which entered into force in February 2005, resulted in the launch of the EU’s Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS). The EU ETS is the world’s first international emissions trading scheme. It works on a cap - and - trade basis, where the total allocation is set at the start of a trading period. EU Allowances (EUAs) are the tradable unit under the EU ETS. Up to a certain limit, it is also allowed to import carbon permits from third countries (CERs and ERUs).
• The second period of the EU ETS runs from 2008-2012 and coincides with the compliance period.
• COP 15, or the United Nation’s Copenhagen climate change summit, will begin in Copenhagen on December 7. Officials will try to agree a new climate treaty as a successor to the Kyoto Protocol, which expires in 2012.

For comments, further information, or to see a copy of the report, please contact: 

Candida Jones
PR Manager, Point Carbon
Mob: +44 (0) 777 5754 763
E-mail: cjo@pointcarbon.com  

KarlMagnus Maribu
Senior Analyst, Point Carbon
Mob: +47 99401145
E-mail: km@pointcarbon.com  

For US press enquiries, please contact:

Jenna Agins
Intermarket Communications
Tel: +1 212 754 5613
E-mail: jagins@intermarket.com  

About Point Carbon

Providing critical insights into energy and environmental markets.

Point Carbon is a world-leading provider of independent news, analysis and consulting services for European and global power, gas and carbon markets. Point Carbon’s comprehensive services provide professionals with market-moving information through monitoring fundamental information, key market players and business and policy developments.

Point Carbon’s in-depth knowledge of power, gas and CO2 emissions market dynamics positions us as the number one supplier of unrivalled market intelligence on these markets. Our staff includes experts in international and regional climate policy, mathematical and economic modelling, forecasting methodologies, risk management and market reporting.

Point Carbon now has more than 30,000 clients, including the world’s major energy companies, financial institutions, organisations and governments, in over 150 countries. Reports are translated from English into Japanese, Chinese, Portuguese, French, Spanish and Russian.

Every year, Point Carbon’s Carbon Market Insights conferences gather thousands of key players for the carbon community’s most important annual conferences. Point Carbon also runs a number of high-level networking events, workshops and training courses.

Point Carbon has offices in Oslo (Head Office), Kiev, London, Malmö, Tokyo and Washington D.C.