Eastern and Northern Europe likely to be drier than usual, predicts Point Carbon
Low rainfall could lead to hydro deficit and higher power prices
Oslo (10 June 2009)
This Summer is set to be warm and dry across Europe, according to Point Carbon, the leading provider of market intelligence, news, analysis, forecasting and advisory services for the energy and environmental markets. Only 80 percent of normal rainfall is expected in Scandinavia in June, July and August, 10 TWh below normal, which could result in a significant hydro deficit and subsequent higher power prices this winter, despite falling consumption. According to Point Carbon’s price model for the Nordic market (SDDP), the lower than normal precipitation amounts would increase the Nordic system price for July through to December by around 5 percent from the current level of €36.5/MWh to €38.5/MWh.
July will probably be the warmest month, and temperatures in Eastern Europe are even more likely to be above normal. This will increase demand for electricity to power air conditioning units.
“Given this predicted deficit, resulting from the current seasonal forecast, it is indeed very likely that power prices will increase this autumn and winter”, according to Bjørn Sønju-Moltzau, head of the Hydrology Department at Point Carbon.
Last year, Point Carbon’s winter forecast, issued on 26 November 2008 by Georg Müller, Point Carbon’s meteorologist, stated that winter temperatures would be near or slightly above average with cold spells most likely in the first two months. It added that February would get milder and wetter and that precipitation amounts and temperatures would be lower than winter 2007-2008. This was very close to the actual outcome.
Note to editors
For journalists wishing to discuss the weather, Point Carbon’s meteorologist, Georg Müller, is online and available for chat from 07:30 to 08:00 and from 13:30 to 14.00 CET each day from Monday to Friday.
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Ole Tom Djupskaas
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Eastern and Northern Europe likely to be drier than usual, predicts Point Carbon Low rainfall could lead to hydro deficit and higher power prices
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