Australia and Japan pledge tougher targets than the EU
Oslo (10 February 2010)
Even if the EU were to increase its emissions reduction target to 30% of 1990 levels, Japan and Australia are still pledging larger cuts from current emission levels, according to recent analysis of the submissions to the Copenhagen Accord published by Point Carbon, the leading independent provider of market intelligence, news, analysis, forecasting and advisory services for the energy and environmental markets.
When compared to the most recent emissions data Japan has pledged the most ambitious 2020-target among Annex I countries with a 31% reduction on 2007 levels, while Australia’s proposed range represents a 13-31% reduction on 2007, with the upper range of its target being as ambitious as Japan’s. Both are more ambitious than those proposed by the EU whose 20-30% reduction range on 1990 emissions represents a 16-27% decrease on 2007 levels. The EU’s 20% target is also weaker than the pledges from the US and Canada, respectively a 17% and 19% reduction on 2007 levels.
“The EU is lagging behind in terms of the ambition to cut emissions from current levels”, says Kjetil Røine, Manager at Point Carbon. “We should, however, bear in mind that these are just non-binding pledges, and the EU is far more advanced when it comes to the implementation of policies and measures to reduce emissions. Moreover, it is not unlikely that EU will reconsider its 20% target if the US implements policies enabling it to meet its pledge”, Røine continues.
Elsewhere, China has pledged to reduce emissions intensity by 40-45% on 2005 levels by 2020, while India’s target to reduce carbon intensity by 20-25% of 2005 levels by 2020 falls short of the Chinese carbon intensity pledge. “Given the expected economic growth in China over the next decade, substantial investments in renewable energy and green technologies must take place in order to meet this emissions intensity target”, says Røine.
The targets submitted by Annex I countries would give an overall reduction by 2020 of 10-15% below 2007 levels, 9-14% below 2005 levels and 12-17% below 1990 levels. Annex I countries would thus increase their ambition level compared to the Kyoto Protocol, which originally (including the US) aimed for a 5.2 % reduction on 1990 levels.
The very fact that, by the start of February, 65 countries had submitted targets and actions to be included in Appendix I and II of the Copenhagen Accord, is an ”indication that there is overall support for continuing negotiations and that there is still political will to reach an agreement“, Røine said. He points to the fact that non-Annex I countries submitted Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions (NAMAs) to the UN for the first time following Copenhagen, indicating some positive outcome from the talks. “However, the road towards a new agreement has not improved due to the submissions. The fundamental positions are the same as before Copenhagen”, Røine ends.
The next opportunity for parties to continue the international climate negotiations will be in Bonn from 31 May to 11 June.
Note to editors
• The Kyoto Protocol to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change entered into force in February 2005 and resulted in the launch of The EU Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS). The world’s first international emissions trading scheme, it works on a cap-and-trade basis, forcing companies to emit no more carbon dioxide than their targets allow, or alternatively buy permits from other companies. The second phase of the scheme runs from 2008-12 and coincides with the Kyoto Protocol commitment period. The third phase is tentatively scheduled for 2013-20.
• Annex B countries are the 39 emissions-capped countries listed in Annex B of the Kyoto Protocol. In practice, Annex I of the UNFCCC and Annex B of the Kyoto Protocol are often used interchangeably.
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Kjetil Røine
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