How many free allowances will my airline be allocated in the EU emissions trading scheme? How much CO2 will each airline produce in 2012? What is the shortfall and cost to each airline?

This award-winning analysis report comes from Point Carbon Advisory Services, in partnership with RDC Aviation. It is offered on a stand-alone basis with a discount for existing subscribers

Aviation CO2 Data Monitor includes:

• Estimate of 2010 revenue-tonne-kilometers for each scheduled carrier;
• expected allocation benchmark;
• number of allowances to be allocated to each airline;
• CO2 output by airline in 2012 and shortfall/surplus of allowances for each airline;
• RTK and CO2 forecasts to 2020;
• demand for offset credits (CERs and ERUs) from the aviation sector.

 
The aviation industry is to join the EU emissions trading scheme from 2012. Flights with origin or destination in the EU will be covered by the scheme, wherever the airline operator is registered, so airlines from around the world are included and approximately one third of international aviation emissions are covered.

The position of the aviation industry as a whole, and individual operators, in 2012 and beyond depends on the historical baseline (average CO2 emissions over 2004 to 2006), the market share of operators in 2010 measured in revenue-tonne-kilometres, and the airlines’ actual emissions in 2012. While the historical baseline has been determined by the European Commission, the other data points remain uncertain.

This report uses a bottom-up methodology to assess those data points by forecasting the RTKs by airline in 2010 and actual emissions in 2012 and on to 2020. Projections are also given for scheduled operators, chartered flights, dedicated cargo and general aviation. The results are displayed for the industry as a whole and by scheduled airline in the annex.

The analysis of the results enables a strategic understanding of the relative market positions of individual airlines as well as the likely benchmark for allocating emissions allowances to airlines, demand from aviation for different compliance instruments and different policy outcomes.

To order the report:

• Request a copy by emailing invoice@pointcarbon.com and quoting AC213 – Aviation CO2 Data Monitor 2011
• Contact the author Andreas Arvanitakis at aa@pointcarbon.com