July-September: Understanding the rise and fall of oil prices.
30 Oct 2008 15:14
After breaking all records in July, the prices of all energy commodities collapsed. The credit crisis – which prompted the failure or buyout of several of the most important private financial institutions globally and is now expected to lead the developed world into recession – had profound impacts on the energy markets. After oil prices rose to an all-time record in both nominal and real terms in mid July, prices began a volatile descent that still looked unstoppable at the close of the quarter. The rapidly deteriorating economic outlook for the OECD economies and prospects of their slump biting into the growth of developing economies brought freight rates and coal FOB prices crashing down, a double whammy on European delivered prices. Spot gas prices were highly volatile during the summer maintenance period and were one of the few commodities to close the quarter with a net gain, but forwards declined in line with the bearish oil and coal markets. Northern European spot power prices closed with an increase as well, driven by the return of normal demand levels after the holiday period and tight systems. Forward power prices, on the other hand, declined along with the lower cost of fuels, although supply risk premiums prevented prices from falling as severely as their fuel counterparts. Carbon allowances were no exception to the generalised decline, although in this period of high volatility and uncertainty, oil seemed to be the key driver, rather than more fundamental drivers such as forward German power or the implied fuel switching price.
In the special topic of this Energy Market Analyst, we look at the fundamentals of the oil market, search for evidence of speculative activity and assess what have been the relative impacts of fundamental and non-fundamental drivers on global crude oil prices.
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